Ratings for LendingClub Loans



  1. Update: I stopped updating this page as I'm too lazy to adapt my scripts to a data-format change. I probably won't update this page. You can read some detail of my analysis in my blog-post (linked below).
  2. The following tables list my ratings for loans (or notes) available through LendingClub. I think (but I could be wrong) that my rating model outperforms the model currently in use at LendingClub.
  3. Note: The following is only my opinion on the loans available. I'm not a professional investment adviser. I'm not licensed as an investment adviser also. Nothing on this page constitutes advice. The loan listing and the ratings are provided without any warranty, expressed or implied. All opinions expressed on this site are those of the author and almost certainly contain errors or omissions. NO MATERIAL HERE CONSTITUTES "INVESTMENT ADVICE" NOR IS IT A RECOMMENDATION TO BUY OR SELL ANY FINANCIAL INSTRUMENT, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO STOCKS, OPTIONS, BONDS, FUTURES OR LOANS OF ANY KIND. I may or may not have a position in any company, loan or security mentioned here. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility. In short: Don't complain if you are loosing money on an investment.
  4. LendingClub has not reviewed any of this and does not endorse anything on this site. LendingClub is not affiliated with this me or this website.
  5. The model makes a few assumptions, which may or may not be true in reality. The outcome ("failure") was defined as default or any kind of late payment (from the status in the historical data). Note that the textual features I've extracted were not used in this model as I haven't figured out a good way to use them for reliably yet. See my blog entry for more details.
  6. How it works and how it may help you:
    1. Ratings are given from 1 to 20 with 20 being the highest rating. For convenience and as the interest rates depend on the original credit rating I've appended the original rating to it. The highest rated loan would be Rating.20.A1.
    2. Not all loans have been rated. Loans that are suspicious in some way are not given a rating ("Unrated").
    3. Click on the links to go the loan on the Lending Club website for the paticular loan.
    4. You can sort the tables by clicking on the column header. However, sorting a large table with Javascript is kinda slow in most browsers.
    5. The "Exp.Gain" column is the interest rate minus the failure probability and possibly a good criterion to estimate the quality of a loan. The "Exp.Gain.Reg" column is experimental. The "OtherFilter" column may contain a few additional flags for a loan. The S, H, M, and 1 flag indicate that a loan fits the investment strategy of another blogger I am evaluating. The "!" flag means that the loan is potentially risky and extra care should be taken. Other flags may be added.
  7. A discussion on risks for p2p lending you should consider in investment decisions.
  8. The loan listings are updated whenever I feel like it. You can see at the bottom of the table the date of the last update and a couple of interesting statistics. Some other folks also built models to predict loan performance:


The ratings are published with a delay. See the "last updated" at the bottom for when the ratings were updated.
RSS feed for updates on the ratings:



  MarkusScore Prob1 Prob2 Exp Gain Exp Gain Reg OtherFilter Loan ID
1 Rating.20.A3 0.082 0.019 -0.083 1.01 7455544
2 Rating.19.A1 0.049 0.047 -4.685 1.01 7381672
3 Rating.18.A5 0.096 0.058 -2.725 0.90 7341852
4 Rating.18.B2 0.123 0.058 -1.856 0.94 7449938
5 Rating.17.B3 0.138 0.067 -1.625 0.92 ! 7371642
6 Rating.17.A3 0.082 0.067 -6.510 0.91 7449695
7 Rating.17.B1 0.114 0.067 -4.570 0.85 7341897
8 Rating.16.A3 0.082 0.096 -7.226 0.83 7455782
9 Rating.16.A3 0.082 0.096 -7.413 0.90 7338346
10 Rating.16.B2 0.123 0.096 -4.240 0.92 7389806
11 Rating.16.A4 0.098 0.096 -7.589 0.85 7380556
12 Rating.15.A4 0.098 0.081 -8.615 0.86 7449530
13 Rating.13.A1 0.049 0.117 -13.561 0.83 7338143
14 Rating.13.A5 0.096 0.117 -10.931 0.85 6568049
15 Rating.13.A2 0.063 0.117 -13.295 0.80 7440034
16 Rating.13.B1 0.114 0.117 -10.338 0.85 7381906
17 Rating.12.A4 0.098 0.113 -12.187 0.78 7276604
18 Rating.12.B3 0.138 0.113 -9.280 0.90 7450070
19 Rating.12.B1 0.114 0.113 -12.054 0.80 7371829
20 Rating.11.B1 0.114 0.120 -12.549 0.81 7381880
21 Rating.11.B3 0.138 0.120 -10.564 0.85 ! 7371455
22 Rating.11.B1 0.114 0.120 -12.601 0.83 7341753
23 Rating.11.B5 0.153 0.120 -9.015 0.83 ! 7371861
24 Rating.11.A2 0.063 0.120 -16.617 0.77 7439946
25 Rating.10.B1 0.114 0.112 -14.177 0.86 ! 7381957
26 Rating.10.B2 0.123 0.112 -13.237 0.86 7455786
27 Rating.09.B3 0.138 0.145 -13.576 0.87 7371830
28 Rating.08.A3 0.082 0.173 -19.798 0.80 7381682
29 Rating.07.B1 0.114 0.175 -18.822 0.78 ! 7380333
30 Rating.07.B1 0.114 0.175 -19.749 0.72 ! 7381891
31 Rating.06.B3 0.138 0.191 -20.747 0.76 ! 7371744
32 Rating.05.B4 0.131 0.205 -20.232 0.79 7072081
33 Rating.05.B3 0.138 0.205 -21.573 0.76 7370476
34 Rating.05.A2 0.063 0.205 -26.640 0.79 ! 7439907
35 Rating.04.B3 0.138 0.234 -25.040 0.78 ! 7380005
36 Rating.03.B3 0.138 0.254 -29.863 0.74 7342077
37 Unrated 0.049 0.019 -3.150 0.99 7382117
38 Unrated 0.096 0.112 -14.842 0.82 7371839



Loan ratings last updated: Sun Oct 06 11:44:26 AM 2013

All measurements in AUC metric.

Overfit-AUC
0.686
Mean 10-fold X-Validation
0.681
Conservate train/test split by time estimate
0.642
Conservate train/test split by time estimate (LC credit score for comparison)
0.618
Conservate train/test split by time estimate (FICO credit score for comparison)
0.639
LC credit score overfitted for comparison
0.621

Estimated probabilities of "failure" (treating historic late payments as failures):


  Prob Rating
1 0.391 Rating.01
2 0.260 Rating.02
3 0.254 Rating.03
4 0.234 Rating.04
5 0.205 Rating.05
6 0.191 Rating.06
7 0.175 Rating.07
8 0.173 Rating.08
9 0.145 Rating.09
10 0.112 Rating.10
11 0.120 Rating.11
12 0.113 Rating.12
13 0.117 Rating.13
14 0.101 Rating.14
15 0.081 Rating.15
16 0.096 Rating.16
17 0.067 Rating.17
18 0.058 Rating.18
19 0.047 Rating.19
20 0.019 Rating.20


  Prob Rating
1 0.049 A1
2 0.063 A2
3 0.082 A3
4 0.098 A4
5 0.096 A5
6 0.114 B1
7 0.123 B2
8 0.138 B3
9 0.131 B4
10 0.153 B5
11 0.170 C1
12 0.171 C2
13 0.189 C3
14 0.175 C4
15 0.202 C5
16 0.227 D1
17 0.207 D2
18 0.225 D3
19 0.241 D4
20 0.211 D5
21 0.248 E1
22 0.198 E2
23 0.135 E3
24 0.282 E4
25 0.297 E5
26 0.260 F1
27 0.267 F2
28 0.294 F3
29 0.161 F4
30 0.400 F5
31 0.176 G1
32 0.308 G2
33 0.800 G3
34 0.375 G4
35 0.545 G5



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